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April 17, 2011 / mike54martin

Half Way There

                             

              But Many Miles before Jack Sleeps

The debates are over and it looks like Jack has pulled the NDP back in as a player in this election. That means that most of the NDP incumbents look safe and a few likely breakthroughs, especially inQuebec. But some NDP incumbents are still in trouble and need our help. Also there are a few New Democrats who would be great MP’s and with a good push and a great ground game can make it.

Below is the list and where they stand according to the latest projections by ThreeHundredEight.com

If you can help you know what to do.

NDP Incumbents in Tight Races

Vancouver-Kingsway

MP Don Davies is trailing Conservative Ronald Leung by 4 percentage points. First elected in 2008 Don is a former lawyer and representative for Teamsters Canada.

Sault Ste Marie

Tony Martin, first elected in 2004 is in a virtual tie with the Conservatives. He was a strong voice in the last Parliament against poverty and will help push for a national anti-poverty plan if he gets re-elected.

Trinity-Spadina

Olivia Chou is being challenged hard by Christine Innes who is a Liberal party insider and the wife of Tony Ianno who has been described asToronto’s Mac Harb. That in itself gives me shivers. But Olivia is worthy on her own merits. Polls show her ahead of Innes by 2 percentage points.

Welland

First time MP Malcolm Allen is currently 3 percentage points behind the Conservative in a tight three-way race inWelland. Malcolm is an electrician from CAW Local 199.

Elmwood-Transcona

Another first time MP Jim Maloway is fighting to keep this long-time NDP seat. Polls show him two percentage points ahead of the Conservative challenger. Jim is a former MLA for the Elmwood district in theManitobalegislature.

Burnaby-Douglas

Kennedy Stewart is trying to hang on to this seat which was vacated by Bill Siskay and before that was held for a long time by Svend Robinson. Currently he is trailing the Conservative candidate by 3 percentage points.

 Seats Where We have a Real Chance to Win

Gatineau

With the NDP surge in Quebec Françoise Boivin is currently projected to be in a tie with the incumbent Bloc MP in a close race. Françoise is a lawyer and former Liberal MP for the area who ran for the NDP in 2008 and finished a very close second.

South Shore-St. Margaret’s

Gordon Earle is the former NDP MP for Halifax West and is locked in a thee-way fight in this riding trying to unseat the Conservative. The current projections have him at 26%, the Liberal at 28% and the Conservative running at 39%. But this is a volatile riding that could be up for grabs. Gordon is a former Chief Human Rights Officer of Nova Scotia.

St. John’sSouth-Mt.Pearl

Another tight three way race with all three candidates polling in the 30 percentage range. Ryan Cleary is a former editor of aSt. John’snewspaper and came within a whisker of winning this seat the last time around.

Hull-Aylmer

Nycole Turmel, former National President of the Public Service Alliance of Canada has been slowly creeping up on the Liberal incumbent and now sits solidly in second place, although still about 10 percentage points behind. She would be a great MP.

Parkdale-HighPark

A rematch from 2008 when Gerard Kennedy took the seat from Peggy Nash. This time around the race is very close again. Latest projection is showing her about 15 points behind Kennedy but closing the gap. I know I lot of Liberals think Kennedy is progressive, but Peggy Nash is a force for social justice all her own and deserves a seat in Parliament.

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