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April 27, 2011 / mike54martin

Who Would Have Thunk It?

All of the “experts” are scratching their heads? How did we get to this place? A week before the Election and the NDP Surge is still rising. It’s still possible for the Tories to get a majority but that will be more about the Liberal collapse than the NDP, and thankfully that looks less likely every day. Harper has to go back to the West Coast in the next few days to try and save a few close seats in B.C. instead of beating his majority drum inSouthern Ontario.

Polls may be only predictions but they are also a record of something that has already happened. There has been a shift to the left and to the NDP in particular and 2 million Canadians have already voted in the advance polls. Watch for more scare-mongering by Harper and sadly too Ignatieff in the next few days but in some ways the die (and some of the votes) has been cast. It’s going to be a hell of a ride until May 2, but I believe the wait will be worth it.

Soooooooo where are we now?


The NDP is closing the gap fast inDartmouth-ColeHarbourand St. Margaret’s-South Shore in Nova Scotia, and is very close inSt. John’s South- Mount Pearl.


The NDP is in front in 6 Quebec ridings (Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer,Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber,Outremont and Westmount-Ville Marie)

If the NDP wave is continuing then look for them to move in front in some or all of the following ridings:

Brossard-La Prairie



Vercheres-La Patriotes

Almost all of the Montreal area ridings are in play and nobody knows how that will shake out on E-Day.


All NDP incumbents including Malcolm Allen inWellandare in the lead. Possible pick ups in Toronto include Parkdale-HighPark,Davenport, and even Beaches-East York. Longer shots include Essex and Oshawa but if the Liberal vote keeps falling there are a lot more seats in play.


All NDP incumbents are ahead and you can add Winnipeg North back to the NDP family.


Nette Wiebe is now 9 points behind the Conservative and if the Orange Wave moves West then she will win along with probably the Palliser riding.


The NDP will hold Edmonton-Strathcona but will be hard pressed to come up with another seat. Very long shot at Edmonton East.

British Columbia

All NDP incumbents are ahead and the NDP is showing new-found strength in some of their old ridings like Kamploops-Thompson-Cariboo and Nanaimo-Alberni.

The best shots for NDP pick ups look like Surrey-North and Vancouver Island North.


Western Arctic looks fine and the race in Nunavutis tightening with the NDP in second place, just 5 points behind.

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