Like many I was surprised, like some I was ecstatic with the Orange Wave. My question was how was the NDP going to convert their long-sought after popularity into seats during this Election? Now the path is clear and barring a total collapse or people listening to the fear-mongering from the Cons or Libs or their friends in the national media, Stephen Harper will be denied his majority and the NDP will be the Official Opposition. Here’s how they do it.
- All NDP incumbents and NDP held seats stayOrange. That includes several that the Cons thought they could pick up like Welland and Burnaby- Douglas.
- In the Atlantic they pick up St. John’sSouth-Mount Pearl from the Libs and in Nova Scotia, where people have shown they are not afraid of voting NDP they pick up South Shore-St. Margarets from the Cons, regain Dartmouth-Cole Harbourfrom the Libs, and best of all send Peter McKay home to play with his dog in Central Nova.
- In Ontario they regain Beaches-East York and send Peggy Nash back to the House fromParkdale-HighPark. Plus they add Andrew Cash from Davenport who will be a total ball of fun as an MP. Chris Buckley will put Oshawaback into the NDP family for the first time since Ed Broadbent back in the 80’s.
- On the Prairies Rebecca Blaikie takes back Stanley Knowles’ seat in Winnipeg North, Nette Wiebe finally gets to the House in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and if the Orange Wave is big enough Palliser in Saskatchewan and Edmonto East just might fall.
- In the North, and you heard it here first, Jack Hicks wins in Nunavut to join his Northern seatmate, Dennis Bevington in Western Arctic.
- In B.C. they pick up Vancouver Island North and we say good bye to John Duncan. They also regain Surrey North and win either the other Nanaimo seat or Kamloops. If the Orange Wave reaches the Pacific they pick up both as well as Esquimalt- Juan de Fuca.
- In Quebec there will be lots of gnashing of teeth for the Bloc, the Cons and the Libs as the Orange Wave runs over all opponents. The avalanche of seats will include:
Gatineau
Hull-Aylmer
Pontiac
Jeanne-Le Ber
Outremont
Westmount-Ville Marie
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Ahunsic
Alfred-Pellan
Beauport- Limoilou
Brome- Mississiquoi
Brossard- La Prairie
Chambly-Borduas
Charlesbourg-Haute Saint-Charles
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant
Chicoutimi
Compton-Stanstead
Drummond
Laval
Longeueil- Pierre-Boucher
Marc-Aurele-Fortin
Regardless of the outcome of the Election the Conservatives will never be the same again. Gone before the election were Stockwell Day and Chuck Strahl. Long gone was Jim Prentice. Now at risk of losing their seats are:
Minister of Foreign AffairsLawrenceCannon
Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Gail Shea
Minister of Health Lorna Aglukkaq
Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development John Duncan
Minister of State (Seniors) Julian Fantino
Minister of Veterans Affairs Jean-Pierre Blackburn
Minister of State (Economic Development,Quebec) Denis Lebel
Minister of State (Sport) Gary Lunn
And the biggest of them all Minister of National Defence Peter McKay
So here is my prediction. Don’t forget to Vote!!
Conservative 132
Liberal 63
NDP 91
BQ 22
Ind 0
GPC 0
The pollsters and pundits have had their say. And to a man or woman they have gotten this election all wrong. Now it’s your turn. It’s time to make your prediction. Winner will receive fab prize (maybe a signed photo of a new PM) and the accolades of all your FB friends for your political acumen.. Total seats 308.
This poll closes at Midnight Friday April 29, 2011.
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
BQ
Ind
GPC
One of the rocks that the Cons and Libs are throwing at the NDP is that they are not experienced enough to be part of Governemnt. Give me a break!! Here are my NDP Cabinet suggestions. Check them out for yourself
https://mike54martin.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ndp-cabinet1.doc
All of the “experts” are scratching their heads? How did we get to this place? A week before the Election and the NDP Surge is still rising. It’s still possible for the Tories to get a majority but that will be more about the Liberal collapse than the NDP, and thankfully that looks less likely every day. Harper has to go back to the West Coast in the next few days to try and save a few close seats in B.C. instead of beating his majority drum inSouthern Ontario.
Polls may be only predictions but they are also a record of something that has already happened. There has been a shift to the left and to the NDP in particular and 2 million Canadians have already voted in the advance polls. Watch for more scare-mongering by Harper and sadly too Ignatieff in the next few days but in some ways the die (and some of the votes) has been cast. It’s going to be a hell of a ride until May 2, but I believe the wait will be worth it.
Soooooooo where are we now?
Atlantic
The NDP is closing the gap fast inDartmouth-ColeHarbourand St. Margaret’s-South Shore in Nova Scotia, and is very close inSt. John’s South- Mount Pearl.
Quebec
The NDP is in front in 6 Quebec ridings (Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer,Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber,Outremont and Westmount-Ville Marie)
If the NDP wave is continuing then look for them to move in front in some or all of the following ridings:
Brossard-La Prairie
Drummond
Saint-Lambert
Vercheres-La Patriotes
Almost all of the Montreal area ridings are in play and nobody knows how that will shake out on E-Day.
Ontario
All NDP incumbents including Malcolm Allen inWellandare in the lead. Possible pick ups in Toronto include Parkdale-HighPark,Davenport, and even Beaches-East York. Longer shots include Essex and Oshawa but if the Liberal vote keeps falling there are a lot more seats in play.
Manitoba
All NDP incumbents are ahead and you can add Winnipeg North back to the NDP family.
Saskatchewan
Nette Wiebe is now 9 points behind the Conservative and if the Orange Wave moves West then she will win along with probably the Palliser riding.
Alberta
The NDP will hold Edmonton-Strathcona but will be hard pressed to come up with another seat. Very long shot at Edmonton East.
British Columbia
All NDP incumbents are ahead and the NDP is showing new-found strength in some of their old ridings like Kamploops-Thompson-Cariboo and Nanaimo-Alberni.
The best shots for NDP pick ups look like Surrey-North and Vancouver Island North.
North
Western Arctic looks fine and the race in Nunavutis tightening with the NDP in second place, just 5 points behind.
There’s one week to go in the Election and the Conservatives are still trying to lie, beg and cajole their way to a Majority. And they are very close. But if everyone who believes in a progressive, democratic and fairCanadadoes our part we can prevent that from happening. Then the hard work of rebuilding our democracy begins. This election will still be won or lost based on thirty or so ridings across the country. If you live in one of these ridings please support the progressive candidate who has the best chance of beating the Tories.
Most of the polling numbers I quote come from ThreeHundredEight.com which utilizes a combination of all polls and changes very slowly. This might not reflect the day to day reality on the ground but does give a rolling snapshot and can capture the major trends which for the NDP are very positive.
For the NDP there are some exciting things happening. Here are some of the races that have yet to be decided but things are very interesting.
Close NDP held ridings
Burnaby-Douglas
Kennedy Stewart is still trailing the Conservative candidate by less than 3 percentage points.
Vancouver-Kingsway
MP Don Davies is moving in a positive direction, now just behind the Conservative by 2 percentage points
Sault Ste Marie
MP Tony Martin is now projected to be a point or two ahead in the Soo.
Welland
MP Malcolm Allen is in a neck and neck race with the Tories to retain this seat and is only 1 point back.
Western Arctic
MP Dennis Bevington is in another close race ahead of the Conservative by 2 points
Possible NDP Pick Ups
Hull-Aylmer
NDP candidate Nycole Turmel, keeps moving up on the Liberal incumbent and now less than only 5 points behind.
Jeanne-Le Ber
NDP candidate Tyrone Benskin is now just 1 point behind the Bloc incumbent.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s
NDP candidate Gordon Earle is solidly in second place just 8 points behind the incumbent Conservative.
St. John’sSouth-Mt.Pearl
The Liberal incumbent is still ahead but NDP candidate Ryan Cleary is in second place, about 8 points behind.
SurreyNorth
NDP candidate Norris Barens is just 5 points behind the Conservative incumbent.
VancouverIsland North
NDP candidate Ronna-Rae Leonard, is 7 points behind Conservative John Duncan.
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe is 10 points back of the incumbent Conservative.
Parkdale-HighPark
NDP candidate Peggy Nash is still battling back and is now 12 points behind Gerard Kennedy.
Nunavut
This race is turning into a three way split with Conservative MP and Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq at 36%, the Libs at 29% and NDP candidate Jack Hicks at 28%.
Other Quebec ridings to keep an eye on:
Drummond: NDP candidate François Choquette is just 7 points behind the Bloc incumbent.
Pontiac: NDP candidate Mathieu Ravignat is just 6 points behind Conservative MP and cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon.
Westmount-Ville Marie: NDP candidate Joanne Corbeil is just 5 points behind the Liberal incumbent.
Two new polls out today show the NDP edging ahead of the Bloc inQuebec. If that continues on E-Day then we’re looking at 4+ NDP MP’s fromQuebec. That would includeGatineau, Hull-Aylmer and Jeanne Le Ber. It may also include:
Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou
This riding is a real four-way race according to a Leger poll conducted for Radio Nordthis poll that shows all parties being within 10 points of each other. Here is the NDP hopeful.
Romeo Saganash originates from Waswanipi. He has been very active politically and in advocacy groups for almost 30 years. In 1985, he founded the Cree Nation Youth Council. His interest in regional economic development got him involved in many Aboriginal businesses such as Creeco Inc. and the Eeyou Society ofJames Bay.
His commitment and his studies in law have led him to hold important position within the Grand Council of Crees, first as Deputy Grand Chief, and then as Director of Quebec relations and international affairs. Mr. Saganash was vice-chairman of the Cree Regional Authority he also chaired the James Bay Advisory Committee on the Environment between 1997 and 2000. His duties have allowed him to develop a strong political network inQuebecandCanada.
Democratic Space, another Election Prediction website has some interesting races noted in their latest report as of April 19. Most of their stuff confirms previous reports but also some surprises, especially inQuebec. From an NDP perspective they include:
Ontario
Welland
MP Malcolm Allen has a slight lead to regain his seat over the Conservative challenger.
Trinity Spadina
MP Olivia Chow is moving a little further ahead of the Liberal.
Quebec
L’Estrie and Montérégie Regions
NDP candidates are in second place in almost every riding in these regions but still pretty far behind the Bloc. They make not make it this time but may bear fruit in the future.
Outaouais Region
They have Gatineau going NDP, Hull-Aylmer tightening up and the NDP with a solid hold on second place in Pontiac where there are some indications that Lawrence Cannon may be in trouble.
Montreal/ Laval Region
The NDP is in second place in ridings all over this region with Jeanne-Le Ber looking really good and in Westmount-Ville Marie the NDP candidate is polling over 30%, just 10 points back in that long-time Liberal bastion.
British Columbia
Vancouver Island North
The NDP candidate Ronna-Rae Leonard, is nipping at the heels of the Conservative John Duncan. This would be a real coup if she could pull it off.
Vancouver Region
They show the NDP pulling ahead in Burnaby-Douglas and Vancouver- Kingsway.
Prairies
No big surprises here and it looks like the NDP hanging on to Edmonton-Strathcona, and Elmwood-Transcona. But inSaskatchewan, Nettie Wiebe, former head of the National Farmers Union is polling over 40% in a close race with the Conservative in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar.
Atlantic
Nova Scotia
They show Gordon Earle just 2 points back of the Conservative in South Shore-St. Margaret’s in a tight three way race and Robert Chisholm just 3 points behind the Liberals in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour.
NewfoundlandandLabrador
Their prediction has Ryan Cleary, the NDP challenger 3 points ahead in another close three way race.
It’s going to be an interesting last few days!!!!
Post-Election Blues
I have been struggling with how to respond to the Federal Election results. As a New Democrat I am elated at Jack’s success. But a big part of me is worried about the impact of four years of a Harper Conservative majority. Unlike others I take little solace in the demise of the Liberal Party. In some parts of the country they were the only allies we had and replacing a red seat cushion with an orange one will not make any more room on the couch.
I have watched, read and listened as all sorts of people, from the right and the left read the tea leaves and made great pronouncements on what it all means for Canada. I for one do not have a clue yet what it all means but some things ring true for me. Here are a few of them.
This was a strange election that produced a result that almost everyone got wrong. I don’t blame the pollsters and pundits, they didn’t know how to respond to the Orange Wave any more than the rest of us. Most of the media just went along for the ride. Them I do blame. The media did more to undermine democracy and democratic institutions by following Stephen Harper’s lead than anyone else. They spent the first half of the campaign allowing him to make the election about an imagined coalition (that would have been both legal and constitutional if it existed) and dismissing any and all calls to hold him to account for his contempt, corruption or callous acts towards women, workers and “not the right kind” of immigrants. They then finished the job, at least in the print media, by almost unanimously endorsing his call for a majority.
I also had the feeling during this election campaign that we on the left were talking to ourselves. Occasionally a voice from the CCPA or Judy Rebick on a CBC panel would speak to the broader world but for all my blogging and reading and writing I felt that I was only reaching my Friends on Facebook. It was great moral encouragement for me to get 5, 15 or 22 “likes” but these people already believed most of the same mantras as I had been reciting for 20 years. Facebook and Twitter may be a catalyst for change in the Arab world but if we keep on just talking to each other I don’t think we are even causing a ripple in the great Canadian conscience.
I also felt proud and excited as young people gathered in Vote Mobs to promote democracy and the women in the Stephen Harper break up videos were awesome and inspiring. But the small uptick in voter participation does not yet make a youth wave and even though women did much better than men when it came time to casting their vote for a positive future, none of the above was a game-changer. At the end of the day we are still left with a Conservative government that is promising a ‘kinder, gentler, machine-gun hand” and is likely to be harsher and swifter in its attack on our precious democracy.
Perhaps the saddest response I have had to the election results was from my son who is doing his PhD inAlberta(Edmonton-Strathcona). He said that his is so dismayed that he is thinking about leaving the country. I still don’t have a good reason to tell him not to go. I will write again soon about the way forward but I’m just not there yet.