Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, maybe Jeanne Le Ber. Plus can Cheryl Gallant really be in trouble?
Good news to start the week. Canadians and Canucks won and the NDP is trending up in the polls.Gatineau is going orange. ThreeHundredEight.com now has Françoise Boivin ahead by three points in the race to be the second NDP in the National Capital Region. Let’s hope she is joined by Nycole Turmel in Hull-Aylmer who is now projected to be just eight points behind. Go Nycole and let’s get out the vote.
Other good news is that Rebecca Blaikie is well ahead in Winnipeg North, Stanley Knowles’ old seat. It was won in a by-election by the Liberals but is now returning to its roots.
As the NDP surge continues the next NDP seat to watch is Jeanne-Le Ber where the Bloc is at 31, the Liberals at 26 and the NDP at 25. The NDP candidate is Tyrone Benskin who is the artistic director ofMontreal’s Black Theatre Workshop, which celebrates its 40th anniversary this year. BTW is the oldest Black theatre company inCanadawhich provides unique training and leadership programs for youth. He is currently in his second term as National Vice-president of the Alliance of Canadian Cinema, Television and Radio Artists (ACTRA).
And this latest piece of good news is that loose cannon Cheryl Gallant’s solid blue riding of Renfrew-Nippising-Pembroke has now been placed in the Too Close To Call column by the Election Prediction Project. Her latest escapade was to walk out of a radio debate because she felt that she was being picked on. This is the same MP who told Newfoundlanders that the Coast Guard shouldn’t be expected to rescue people lost at sea!! I want to believe that she will lose but that would really be too good to be true.
But Many Miles before Jack Sleeps
The debates are over and it looks like Jack has pulled the NDP back in as a player in this election. That means that most of the NDP incumbents look safe and a few likely breakthroughs, especially inQuebec. But some NDP incumbents are still in trouble and need our help. Also there are a few New Democrats who would be great MP’s and with a good push and a great ground game can make it.
Below is the list and where they stand according to the latest projections by ThreeHundredEight.com
If you can help you know what to do.
NDP Incumbents in Tight Races
Vancouver-Kingsway
MP Don Davies is trailing Conservative Ronald Leung by 4 percentage points. First elected in 2008 Don is a former lawyer and representative for Teamsters Canada.
Sault Ste Marie
Tony Martin, first elected in 2004 is in a virtual tie with the Conservatives. He was a strong voice in the last Parliament against poverty and will help push for a national anti-poverty plan if he gets re-elected.
Trinity-Spadina
Olivia Chou is being challenged hard by Christine Innes who is a Liberal party insider and the wife of Tony Ianno who has been described asToronto’s Mac Harb. That in itself gives me shivers. But Olivia is worthy on her own merits. Polls show her ahead of Innes by 2 percentage points.
Welland
First time MP Malcolm Allen is currently 3 percentage points behind the Conservative in a tight three-way race inWelland. Malcolm is an electrician from CAW Local 199.
Elmwood-Transcona
Another first time MP Jim Maloway is fighting to keep this long-time NDP seat. Polls show him two percentage points ahead of the Conservative challenger. Jim is a former MLA for the Elmwood district in theManitobalegislature.
Burnaby-Douglas
Kennedy Stewart is trying to hang on to this seat which was vacated by Bill Siskay and before that was held for a long time by Svend Robinson. Currently he is trailing the Conservative candidate by 3 percentage points.
Seats Where We have a Real Chance to Win
Gatineau
With the NDP surge in Quebec Françoise Boivin is currently projected to be in a tie with the incumbent Bloc MP in a close race. Françoise is a lawyer and former Liberal MP for the area who ran for the NDP in 2008 and finished a very close second.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s
Gordon Earle is the former NDP MP for Halifax West and is locked in a thee-way fight in this riding trying to unseat the Conservative. The current projections have him at 26%, the Liberal at 28% and the Conservative running at 39%. But this is a volatile riding that could be up for grabs. Gordon is a former Chief Human Rights Officer of Nova Scotia.
St. John’sSouth-Mt.Pearl
Another tight three way race with all three candidates polling in the 30 percentage range. Ryan Cleary is a former editor of aSt. John’snewspaper and came within a whisker of winning this seat the last time around.
Hull-Aylmer
Nycole Turmel, former National President of the Public Service Alliance of Canada has been slowly creeping up on the Liberal incumbent and now sits solidly in second place, although still about 10 percentage points behind. She would be a great MP.
Parkdale-HighPark
A rematch from 2008 when Gerard Kennedy took the seat from Peggy Nash. This time around the race is very close again. Latest projection is showing her about 15 points behind Kennedy but closing the gap. I know I lot of Liberals think Kennedy is progressive, but Peggy Nash is a force for social justice all her own and deserves a seat in Parliament.
I have to admit I only watched brief snippets of the debate last night. I found the whole thing rather unsettling. What I saw reminded me of how bad the Tories are and how Steve “just doesn’t get it”. I think that he is either a sociopath without any feelings or so hardened by his early life that he can’t bear to deal with any emotions, not sadness or regret certainly, but also a complete lack of joy. He looked like a pasty-faced student who had been sent to the front of the class to read his report and was told to ignore any questions or “bickering” and not to look anybody but the teacher in the eye. I don’t feel sorry for him, he has no problems lying with a straight face, but I had a few moments of despair when I thought about him possibly winning a majority.
I liked Jack Layton and his debating style. He was fun to watch and he had some great one-liners. He put forward many of the questions that I would have liked to ask Steve myself. Michael Ignatieff was better than I thought but he was nervous and still lacks the common touch. Gilles Duceppe was the most pointed questioner but is not a factor in English Canada and was and looked irrelevant most of the time. He will get his turn tonite during the French debate.
But what bothered me most about the debate were two things.
First of all that Elizabeth May was not on the podium. The four white middle-aged men missed not only May’s wit and her ability to bring something new to the table, but the lack of a woman in the debate hurt all of us, men and women. The puffed up egos and testosterone was more than a little off-putting and to not have at least one representative of half of the population at the table is a disgrace. I blame the other political parties for keeping Elizabeth May out of the debate for their own self-serving interests. A party that got nearly a million votes in the last election has earned their place at the microphone and people can hide behind the “broadcasting consortium” all they want. It was a mistake and we must make sure that never happens again, to any political party or leader.
Secondly that the media, starting with the CBC panel last night, are congratulating Steve for his calm under attack and that he won the debate by not losing it. It raises an important question for all fair-minded Canadians to consider. Why are so very few in the national media afraid to challenge him on his contempt for democracy, his dismissal of a legitimate, legal, and constitutional measure like a coalition, or the mounting scandals that are enveloping his Government? Maybe they are afraid that they won’t get one of the four questions that he allows daily. Whatever the reason they are starting to become, if they haven’t already, complicit in Harper’s dumbing down and eventual destruction of our democracy.
There is still time to do to prevent Steve and his gang from completely taking over Canada. The debate just reminded me of how much work we have to do.
Lest there be any doubt where the Canadian Taxpayers Federation’s loyalties lie we now have the latest CTF leader to join the ranks of full-fledged Tories. Kevin Gaudet, former federal and Ontario director of the Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation, will be acclaimed as the candidate in the riding of Pickering-Scarborough East. He will replace Salman Farooq, who quietly abandoned his provincial election bid last month days before being charged with fraud.
This is not Gaudet’s first try at getting elected. He ran as the Reform candidate in the 1995 Federal By-Election in Ottawa-Vanier.
I guess the CTF is more concerned with their personal electoral success than “protecting taxpayers.”
Just to remind you of some other former CTFers turned Tory:
Jason Kenney, Former CEO: Federal Minister of Citizenship and Immigration.
John Carpay, Former Alberta director: Reform Party candidate in the riding of Burnaby-Kingsway in the 1993 federal election.
Walter Robinson, Federal director from 1998 to 2004: He left the position to run as a Conservative in the 2004 Federal Election in Ottawa-Orleans.
John Williamson, Former Ontario spokesperson and Federal director: He served as Stephen Harper’s Communication Director and is the Federal Conservative candidate for the riding of New Brunswick Southwest for the next election.
In every election the people we elect are often more important than the party. We need people whom we can trust will actually stand up for us in the new Parliament. I live in Ottawa Centre and have a great MP, Paul Dewar who I support for re-election. And I am confident he will be re-elected. But regardless of the shape and configuration of the next Parliament, Paul will need strong and progressive people around him. If you already have a progessive MP then please work to re-elect them. But they will need help.
Here are a few candidates who have a track record of supporting social justice issues and deserve our support in any way that we can. I know there are others. Let me know your choices and we’ll keep adding to the list.
Peggy Nash Parkdale-High Park
Nycole Turmel Hull-Aylmer
http://nycoleturmel.ndp.ca/about
Mark Rogers Kings-Hants
Jinny Sims Newton-North Delta
Dennis Lewycky Winnipeg South Centre
Robert Chisholm Darthmouth-Cole Harbour
http://robertchisholm.ndp.ca/about
Nettie Wiebe Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
http://nettiewiebe.ndp.ca/about
Tania Cameron Kenora
After one week of the Federal Election campaign Stephen Harper is inches away from majority territory in all of the polls. But he’s not there yet and if we all work hard he never will.
I’m not a big fan of strategic voting but if we want to stop a Harper Majority then there are about between 30 and 40 seats right now (according to projections by ThreeHundredEight.com) that can certainly be influenced if enough people bother to vote, and vote for the left of centre candidate who can win in their riding. If the Tories lose these seats then we at least survive the election and can build for a progressive Canada. If they win a dozen or so of these, our Canadian goose is cooked.
Below is the list of seats that I think hold our best hopes. There may be others and if you think there are then go for it. If you live in any of these ridings and want to stop a Harper majority then think about working or voting for the best non-Tory candidate who could win. Your vote can make a difference. If you don’t live in any of these ridings but have relatives, friends, neighbours, fellow country men and women who do then maybe you could it a shot to persuade, cajole, or influence them to do the right thing. Please give it a shot. Finally if you want to do something tangible to stop a Harper Majority then please consider a donation to one of these campaigns that is working so hard to do so.
Apologies in advance if I offend anyone in the political spectrum but I am willing to withstand the scorn, at least for a couple of more weeks. I also have to admit that I do not personally know all of the suggested candidates in all of these ridings, but the ones I do (like Nycole Turmel in Hull-Aylmer) are solid people who will work with us in the future.
After so much pleadings and pleadings, enough from me. Here is your list!! These are numbers crunched by the good folks at ThreeHundredEight.com and reflect the latest national, regional and local polling available. If you want to know how they do it the drop in and see them.
British Columbia
Burnaby-Douglas NDP behind Cons -4
Saanich-Gulf Islands Green behind Cons -9
Vancouver Island North NDP behind Cons -8
Alberta
Edmonton Centre Lib behind Cons -2
Edmonton East NDP behind Cons -19 (Hey, it’s Alberta)
Saskatchewan
Sask-Rosetown-Biggar NDP behind Cons -14
Desnethe-Missinippi- Churchill River Lib behind Cons -7
Manitoba
Elmwood-Transcona Tie NDP-Cons
Saint Boniface Lib behind Cons -3
Winnipeg South Lib behind Cons -6
Ontario
Ajax-Pickering Lib behind Cons -2
Brampton-Springdale Lib behind Cons -2
Brampton West Tie Lib-Cons
Eglinton-Lawrence Tie Lib-Cons
Guelph Lib ahead of Cons +2
Kingston Tie Lib-Cons
Kitchener-Centre Lib behind Cons -4
Kitchener-Waterloo Tie Lib-Cons
Mississauga-Erindale Lib behind Cons -4
Mississauga-South Tie Lib-Cons
Oakridges-Markham Lib behind Cons -8
Ottawa-Orleans Lib behind Cons -8
Sault Ste Marie Tie NDP-Cons
Vaughn Lib behind Cons -2
Welland NDP behind Cons -6
Newfoundland and Labrador
St. John’s South-Mount Pearl Lib ahead of Cons +2
PEI
Egmont Lib behind Cons -6
Nova Scotia
West Nova Lib behind Cons -6
New Brunswick
Miramichi Lib behind Cons -7
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe Lib ahead of Cons +2
St. John Lib behind Cons -4
Canadians for Tax Fairness have gone live. Check out their new website and sign the petition to Stop Corporate Tax cuts
Again, and again and now once again, the majority of Canadains do not want their Government to hand out tax gifts to big corporations or buy a new fleet of fighter jets.
Is anyone listening? We have the Majority.
Daily Update April 19
Sunnyside Up
NDP continues upward swing. Here is your daily update.
Sault Ste Marie
MP Tony Martin is now projected to be edging ahead in the Soo. Great news for anti-poverty and social justice activists.
Vancouver-Kingsway
MP Don Davies is moving in a positive direction, now just behind the Conservative by 2 percentage points.
Trinity-Spadina
MP Olivia Chow is now ahead by 4 percentage points and will get a boost from Jack today.
Welland
MP Malcolm Allen is now behind the Conservative by less than 2. Jack will also be inWelland later today.
Elmwood-Transcona
MP Jim Maloway is now 3 percentage points ahead of the Conservative challenger.
Burnaby-Douglas
Kennedy Stewart is still trailing the Conservative candidate by 3 percentage points.
Gatineau
Françoise Boivin is ahead by 3 points over the incumbent Bloc MP and should be our second MP fromQuebec.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s
Gordon Earle has now moved into second place is and is 9 points behind the incumbent Conservative.
Hull-Aylmer
Nycole Turmel, keeps moving up on the Liberal incumbent and now only 8 points behind. Wouldn’t it be great to have her as our third MP.
Parkdale-HighPark
Peggy Nash is clawing back and is now 14 points behind Gerard Kennedy. Maybe too much to recover from in less than two weeks but Jack is in town today and that should help.
St. John’sSouth-Mt.Pearl
This one is trending Liberal right now with Ryan Cleary falling back to about 14 percentage points behind the Liberal incumbent.
Jeanne-Le Ber
Adding this riding to my watch list as the best chance for our fourth MP fromQuebec. Tyrone Benskin is now at 26%, the Liberal is at 28% and the Bloc at 31%. Stay tuned.