One of the rocks that the Cons and Libs are throwing at the NDP is that they are not experienced enough to be part of Governemnt. Give me a break!! Here are my NDP Cabinet suggestions. Check them out for yourself
https://mike54martin.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ndp-cabinet1.doc
All of the “experts” are scratching their heads? How did we get to this place? A week before the Election and the NDP Surge is still rising. It’s still possible for the Tories to get a majority but that will be more about the Liberal collapse than the NDP, and thankfully that looks less likely every day. Harper has to go back to the West Coast in the next few days to try and save a few close seats in B.C. instead of beating his majority drum inSouthern Ontario.
Polls may be only predictions but they are also a record of something that has already happened. There has been a shift to the left and to the NDP in particular and 2 million Canadians have already voted in the advance polls. Watch for more scare-mongering by Harper and sadly too Ignatieff in the next few days but in some ways the die (and some of the votes) has been cast. It’s going to be a hell of a ride until May 2, but I believe the wait will be worth it.
Soooooooo where are we now?
Atlantic
The NDP is closing the gap fast inDartmouth-ColeHarbourand St. Margaret’s-South Shore in Nova Scotia, and is very close inSt. John’s South- Mount Pearl.
Quebec
The NDP is in front in 6 Quebec ridings (Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer,Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber,Outremont and Westmount-Ville Marie)
If the NDP wave is continuing then look for them to move in front in some or all of the following ridings:
Brossard-La Prairie
Drummond
Saint-Lambert
Vercheres-La Patriotes
Almost all of the Montreal area ridings are in play and nobody knows how that will shake out on E-Day.
Ontario
All NDP incumbents including Malcolm Allen inWellandare in the lead. Possible pick ups in Toronto include Parkdale-HighPark,Davenport, and even Beaches-East York. Longer shots include Essex and Oshawa but if the Liberal vote keeps falling there are a lot more seats in play.
Manitoba
All NDP incumbents are ahead and you can add Winnipeg North back to the NDP family.
Saskatchewan
Nette Wiebe is now 9 points behind the Conservative and if the Orange Wave moves West then she will win along with probably the Palliser riding.
Alberta
The NDP will hold Edmonton-Strathcona but will be hard pressed to come up with another seat. Very long shot at Edmonton East.
British Columbia
All NDP incumbents are ahead and the NDP is showing new-found strength in some of their old ridings like Kamploops-Thompson-Cariboo and Nanaimo-Alberni.
The best shots for NDP pick ups look like Surrey-North and Vancouver Island North.
North
Western Arctic looks fine and the race in Nunavutis tightening with the NDP in second place, just 5 points behind.
There’s one week to go in the Election and the Conservatives are still trying to lie, beg and cajole their way to a Majority. And they are very close. But if everyone who believes in a progressive, democratic and fairCanadadoes our part we can prevent that from happening. Then the hard work of rebuilding our democracy begins. This election will still be won or lost based on thirty or so ridings across the country. If you live in one of these ridings please support the progressive candidate who has the best chance of beating the Tories.
Most of the polling numbers I quote come from ThreeHundredEight.com which utilizes a combination of all polls and changes very slowly. This might not reflect the day to day reality on the ground but does give a rolling snapshot and can capture the major trends which for the NDP are very positive.
For the NDP there are some exciting things happening. Here are some of the races that have yet to be decided but things are very interesting.
Close NDP held ridings
Burnaby-Douglas
Kennedy Stewart is still trailing the Conservative candidate by less than 3 percentage points.
Vancouver-Kingsway
MP Don Davies is moving in a positive direction, now just behind the Conservative by 2 percentage points
Sault Ste Marie
MP Tony Martin is now projected to be a point or two ahead in the Soo.
Welland
MP Malcolm Allen is in a neck and neck race with the Tories to retain this seat and is only 1 point back.
Western Arctic
MP Dennis Bevington is in another close race ahead of the Conservative by 2 points
Possible NDP Pick Ups
Hull-Aylmer
NDP candidate Nycole Turmel, keeps moving up on the Liberal incumbent and now less than only 5 points behind.
Jeanne-Le Ber
NDP candidate Tyrone Benskin is now just 1 point behind the Bloc incumbent.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s
NDP candidate Gordon Earle is solidly in second place just 8 points behind the incumbent Conservative.
St. John’sSouth-Mt.Pearl
The Liberal incumbent is still ahead but NDP candidate Ryan Cleary is in second place, about 8 points behind.
SurreyNorth
NDP candidate Norris Barens is just 5 points behind the Conservative incumbent.
VancouverIsland North
NDP candidate Ronna-Rae Leonard, is 7 points behind Conservative John Duncan.
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe is 10 points back of the incumbent Conservative.
Parkdale-HighPark
NDP candidate Peggy Nash is still battling back and is now 12 points behind Gerard Kennedy.
Nunavut
This race is turning into a three way split with Conservative MP and Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq at 36%, the Libs at 29% and NDP candidate Jack Hicks at 28%.
Other Quebec ridings to keep an eye on:
Drummond: NDP candidate François Choquette is just 7 points behind the Bloc incumbent.
Pontiac: NDP candidate Mathieu Ravignat is just 6 points behind Conservative MP and cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon.
Westmount-Ville Marie: NDP candidate Joanne Corbeil is just 5 points behind the Liberal incumbent.
Two new polls out today show the NDP edging ahead of the Bloc inQuebec. If that continues on E-Day then we’re looking at 4+ NDP MP’s fromQuebec. That would includeGatineau, Hull-Aylmer and Jeanne Le Ber. It may also include:
Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou
This riding is a real four-way race according to a Leger poll conducted for Radio Nordthis poll that shows all parties being within 10 points of each other. Here is the NDP hopeful.
Romeo Saganash originates from Waswanipi. He has been very active politically and in advocacy groups for almost 30 years. In 1985, he founded the Cree Nation Youth Council. His interest in regional economic development got him involved in many Aboriginal businesses such as Creeco Inc. and the Eeyou Society ofJames Bay.
His commitment and his studies in law have led him to hold important position within the Grand Council of Crees, first as Deputy Grand Chief, and then as Director of Quebec relations and international affairs. Mr. Saganash was vice-chairman of the Cree Regional Authority he also chaired the James Bay Advisory Committee on the Environment between 1997 and 2000. His duties have allowed him to develop a strong political network inQuebecandCanada.
Democratic Space, another Election Prediction website has some interesting races noted in their latest report as of April 19. Most of their stuff confirms previous reports but also some surprises, especially inQuebec. From an NDP perspective they include:
Ontario
Welland
MP Malcolm Allen has a slight lead to regain his seat over the Conservative challenger.
Trinity Spadina
MP Olivia Chow is moving a little further ahead of the Liberal.
Quebec
L’Estrie and Montérégie Regions
NDP candidates are in second place in almost every riding in these regions but still pretty far behind the Bloc. They make not make it this time but may bear fruit in the future.
Outaouais Region
They have Gatineau going NDP, Hull-Aylmer tightening up and the NDP with a solid hold on second place in Pontiac where there are some indications that Lawrence Cannon may be in trouble.
Montreal/ Laval Region
The NDP is in second place in ridings all over this region with Jeanne-Le Ber looking really good and in Westmount-Ville Marie the NDP candidate is polling over 30%, just 10 points back in that long-time Liberal bastion.
British Columbia
Vancouver Island North
The NDP candidate Ronna-Rae Leonard, is nipping at the heels of the Conservative John Duncan. This would be a real coup if she could pull it off.
Vancouver Region
They show the NDP pulling ahead in Burnaby-Douglas and Vancouver- Kingsway.
Prairies
No big surprises here and it looks like the NDP hanging on to Edmonton-Strathcona, and Elmwood-Transcona. But inSaskatchewan, Nettie Wiebe, former head of the National Farmers Union is polling over 40% in a close race with the Conservative in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar.
Atlantic
Nova Scotia
They show Gordon Earle just 2 points back of the Conservative in South Shore-St. Margaret’s in a tight three way race and Robert Chisholm just 3 points behind the Liberals in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour.
NewfoundlandandLabrador
Their prediction has Ryan Cleary, the NDP challenger 3 points ahead in another close three way race.
It’s going to be an interesting last few days!!!!
Sunnyside Up
NDP continues upward swing. Here is your daily update.
Sault Ste Marie
MP Tony Martin is now projected to be edging ahead in the Soo. Great news for anti-poverty and social justice activists.
Vancouver-Kingsway
MP Don Davies is moving in a positive direction, now just behind the Conservative by 2 percentage points.
Trinity-Spadina
MP Olivia Chow is now ahead by 4 percentage points and will get a boost from Jack today.
Welland
MP Malcolm Allen is now behind the Conservative by less than 2. Jack will also be inWelland later today.
Elmwood-Transcona
MP Jim Maloway is now 3 percentage points ahead of the Conservative challenger.
Burnaby-Douglas
Kennedy Stewart is still trailing the Conservative candidate by 3 percentage points.
Gatineau
Françoise Boivin is ahead by 3 points over the incumbent Bloc MP and should be our second MP fromQuebec.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s
Gordon Earle has now moved into second place is and is 9 points behind the incumbent Conservative.
Hull-Aylmer
Nycole Turmel, keeps moving up on the Liberal incumbent and now only 8 points behind. Wouldn’t it be great to have her as our third MP.
Parkdale-HighPark
Peggy Nash is clawing back and is now 14 points behind Gerard Kennedy. Maybe too much to recover from in less than two weeks but Jack is in town today and that should help.
St. John’sSouth-Mt.Pearl
This one is trending Liberal right now with Ryan Cleary falling back to about 14 percentage points behind the Liberal incumbent.
Jeanne-Le Ber
Adding this riding to my watch list as the best chance for our fourth MP fromQuebec. Tyrone Benskin is now at 26%, the Liberal is at 28% and the Bloc at 31%. Stay tuned.
Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, maybe Jeanne Le Ber. Plus can Cheryl Gallant really be in trouble?
Good news to start the week. Canadians and Canucks won and the NDP is trending up in the polls.Gatineau is going orange. ThreeHundredEight.com now has Françoise Boivin ahead by three points in the race to be the second NDP in the National Capital Region. Let’s hope she is joined by Nycole Turmel in Hull-Aylmer who is now projected to be just eight points behind. Go Nycole and let’s get out the vote.
Other good news is that Rebecca Blaikie is well ahead in Winnipeg North, Stanley Knowles’ old seat. It was won in a by-election by the Liberals but is now returning to its roots.
As the NDP surge continues the next NDP seat to watch is Jeanne-Le Ber where the Bloc is at 31, the Liberals at 26 and the NDP at 25. The NDP candidate is Tyrone Benskin who is the artistic director ofMontreal’s Black Theatre Workshop, which celebrates its 40th anniversary this year. BTW is the oldest Black theatre company inCanadawhich provides unique training and leadership programs for youth. He is currently in his second term as National Vice-president of the Alliance of Canadian Cinema, Television and Radio Artists (ACTRA).
And this latest piece of good news is that loose cannon Cheryl Gallant’s solid blue riding of Renfrew-Nippising-Pembroke has now been placed in the Too Close To Call column by the Election Prediction Project. Her latest escapade was to walk out of a radio debate because she felt that she was being picked on. This is the same MP who told Newfoundlanders that the Coast Guard shouldn’t be expected to rescue people lost at sea!! I want to believe that she will lose but that would really be too good to be true.
But Many Miles before Jack Sleeps
The debates are over and it looks like Jack has pulled the NDP back in as a player in this election. That means that most of the NDP incumbents look safe and a few likely breakthroughs, especially inQuebec. But some NDP incumbents are still in trouble and need our help. Also there are a few New Democrats who would be great MP’s and with a good push and a great ground game can make it.
Below is the list and where they stand according to the latest projections by ThreeHundredEight.com
If you can help you know what to do.
NDP Incumbents in Tight Races
Vancouver-Kingsway
MP Don Davies is trailing Conservative Ronald Leung by 4 percentage points. First elected in 2008 Don is a former lawyer and representative for Teamsters Canada.
Sault Ste Marie
Tony Martin, first elected in 2004 is in a virtual tie with the Conservatives. He was a strong voice in the last Parliament against poverty and will help push for a national anti-poverty plan if he gets re-elected.
Trinity-Spadina
Olivia Chou is being challenged hard by Christine Innes who is a Liberal party insider and the wife of Tony Ianno who has been described asToronto’s Mac Harb. That in itself gives me shivers. But Olivia is worthy on her own merits. Polls show her ahead of Innes by 2 percentage points.
Welland
First time MP Malcolm Allen is currently 3 percentage points behind the Conservative in a tight three-way race inWelland. Malcolm is an electrician from CAW Local 199.
Elmwood-Transcona
Another first time MP Jim Maloway is fighting to keep this long-time NDP seat. Polls show him two percentage points ahead of the Conservative challenger. Jim is a former MLA for the Elmwood district in theManitobalegislature.
Burnaby-Douglas
Kennedy Stewart is trying to hang on to this seat which was vacated by Bill Siskay and before that was held for a long time by Svend Robinson. Currently he is trailing the Conservative candidate by 3 percentage points.
Seats Where We have a Real Chance to Win
Gatineau
With the NDP surge in Quebec Françoise Boivin is currently projected to be in a tie with the incumbent Bloc MP in a close race. Françoise is a lawyer and former Liberal MP for the area who ran for the NDP in 2008 and finished a very close second.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s
Gordon Earle is the former NDP MP for Halifax West and is locked in a thee-way fight in this riding trying to unseat the Conservative. The current projections have him at 26%, the Liberal at 28% and the Conservative running at 39%. But this is a volatile riding that could be up for grabs. Gordon is a former Chief Human Rights Officer of Nova Scotia.
St. John’sSouth-Mt.Pearl
Another tight three way race with all three candidates polling in the 30 percentage range. Ryan Cleary is a former editor of aSt. John’snewspaper and came within a whisker of winning this seat the last time around.
Hull-Aylmer
Nycole Turmel, former National President of the Public Service Alliance of Canada has been slowly creeping up on the Liberal incumbent and now sits solidly in second place, although still about 10 percentage points behind. She would be a great MP.
Parkdale-HighPark
A rematch from 2008 when Gerard Kennedy took the seat from Peggy Nash. This time around the race is very close again. Latest projection is showing her about 15 points behind Kennedy but closing the gap. I know I lot of Liberals think Kennedy is progressive, but Peggy Nash is a force for social justice all her own and deserves a seat in Parliament.
I have to admit I only watched brief snippets of the debate last night. I found the whole thing rather unsettling. What I saw reminded me of how bad the Tories are and how Steve “just doesn’t get it”. I think that he is either a sociopath without any feelings or so hardened by his early life that he can’t bear to deal with any emotions, not sadness or regret certainly, but also a complete lack of joy. He looked like a pasty-faced student who had been sent to the front of the class to read his report and was told to ignore any questions or “bickering” and not to look anybody but the teacher in the eye. I don’t feel sorry for him, he has no problems lying with a straight face, but I had a few moments of despair when I thought about him possibly winning a majority.
I liked Jack Layton and his debating style. He was fun to watch and he had some great one-liners. He put forward many of the questions that I would have liked to ask Steve myself. Michael Ignatieff was better than I thought but he was nervous and still lacks the common touch. Gilles Duceppe was the most pointed questioner but is not a factor in English Canada and was and looked irrelevant most of the time. He will get his turn tonite during the French debate.
But what bothered me most about the debate were two things.
First of all that Elizabeth May was not on the podium. The four white middle-aged men missed not only May’s wit and her ability to bring something new to the table, but the lack of a woman in the debate hurt all of us, men and women. The puffed up egos and testosterone was more than a little off-putting and to not have at least one representative of half of the population at the table is a disgrace. I blame the other political parties for keeping Elizabeth May out of the debate for their own self-serving interests. A party that got nearly a million votes in the last election has earned their place at the microphone and people can hide behind the “broadcasting consortium” all they want. It was a mistake and we must make sure that never happens again, to any political party or leader.
Secondly that the media, starting with the CBC panel last night, are congratulating Steve for his calm under attack and that he won the debate by not losing it. It raises an important question for all fair-minded Canadians to consider. Why are so very few in the national media afraid to challenge him on his contempt for democracy, his dismissal of a legitimate, legal, and constitutional measure like a coalition, or the mounting scandals that are enveloping his Government? Maybe they are afraid that they won’t get one of the four questions that he allows daily. Whatever the reason they are starting to become, if they haven’t already, complicit in Harper’s dumbing down and eventual destruction of our democracy.
There is still time to do to prevent Steve and his gang from completely taking over Canada. The debate just reminded me of how much work we have to do.
mike54martin 
It’s Prediction Time
The pollsters and pundits have had their say. And to a man or woman they have gotten this election all wrong. Now it’s your turn. It’s time to make your prediction. Winner will receive fab prize (maybe a signed photo of a new PM) and the accolades of all your FB friends for your political acumen.. Total seats 308.
This poll closes at Midnight Friday April 29, 2011.
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
BQ
Ind
GPC